What was being put in narrow circles a few months ago is now a question that is expanding day after day. Is the world heading for a currency war? Or is the currency war already under way, and can the Sino-US trade conflict be a prelude to a massive economic downturn that drives both sides to take a qualitative step to win the battle by turning to currency war? And who is the biggest loser in that war if it breaks out?
Currency war is the password now in many economic corridors, and it is not a matter of examining the extent of its seriousness or economic impact, such topics have killed academic research, but that the international economy suffered catastrophic effects in some stages of development, and therefore humanity has painful experiences with That kind of war, and what is currently being seen, is limited to how the global economy can face the risks of that battle.
Can the bipolar leaders of the United States and China realize the fate of the international economy if they decide to go ahead with currency war, Which may mean that Khaya Is economic suicide the official choice?
Professor John White, former chairman of the Bank of England’s Advisory Committee, puts the question to the question: Does anyone have an interest in the value of the currency being high in the current global trade conflict? The question is answered by "no".
"It can not be said that the international economy is witnessing a war of currencies, but certainly the circumstances are more than ever prepared for that war," he says. "If you are pessimistic, I can say that we are moving in this direction.
"The big economies now have a strong currency, after the strong currency has been a sign of strong economy and improved performance, and the conviction now prevailing among many economic leaders and policymakers that a weak currency will boost economic growth gives the economy a preferential advantage On his trade rivals, the risk that if everyone joined to that conviction will be all losers. "
The US administration wants the dollar to be weak, the EU is also seeking a weak European currency, and Japan is not hiding its official policy to overcome deflation lies in weakening the yen, China wants the yuan More competitive to increase exports and reduce imports, and Britain is silent on the decline of sterling, which could contribute to increase exports at a time when the exit from the European Union many economic problems.
But what’s the problem with that? Answers d. David, the Bank of England economist, said: "There is no problem in devaluation per se if it is a result of changes in market forces, but the risk when it is deliberate or flawed is done deliberately."
He asserts to the "economic" that the US side was clear and frank in accusing China strongly and frankly, as well as Japan to a lesser degree, that they manipulate the value of their local currency, the yuan and yen to achieve preferential advantages at the expense of US exports.
He notes that US Treasury Secretary Stephen Manuchen welcomed the depreciation of the dollar while welcoming the best economic performance of the euro area in more than a decade. Not surprisingly, the euro against the dollar rose to more than $ 1.25. On the other hand, The European is very upset by the euro’s improved value, which hampers its efforts to overcome deflation and low inflation in the Eurozone countries.
"Under the circumstances, investors and hedge funds are very cautious and delay their investment decisions pending clouds, which means a drop in growth."
Concerns that a trade war could turn into a currency war are legitimate for many economists, but they believe that currency war has not yet officially broken out.
But some believe that the US economy may be better able to counter that war than others. Some even believe that Washington may have a real interest in moving the international economy toward a currency war to curb the Chinese yuan’s ambitions.
And some believe that Washington has an interest in weakening the Chinese yuan so much that it can not be priced for major commodities in international trade, and this will only happen through its defeat in a currency war, which China is seeking to avoid now .
Since 2016, there are notable Chinese steps to dismantle capital controls on the yuan, a prerequisite for making it an international currency. Although these steps contribute relatively to the promotion of international trade by promoting the use of the yuan beyond China’s economic borders, it is a future challenge for the dollar American.
"The Chinese central bank has pledged that it will not use the yuan as a means of a trade dispute with the United States, revealing China’s financial policymakers’ understanding that they will emerge losers from the battle of currency war," said Tina Brown, a banking expert. In that war, the Chinese yuan is in a vulnerable position, and Beijing will not have to repeat the experience of 2015 by injecting more cash reserves into the markets to maintain the value of its national currency from total collapse against the dollar.
This means huge erosion in its dollar reserves without a household It is to maintain the balance of the yuan. "
But if the United States can emerge victorious in that war, despite the losses, why not rush to ignite the currency war ?!
The current interplay in the global economy as a result of globalization largely hampers the ability of the United States to do so. Such a war will inevitably weaken the growth rates of the Chinese economy and weaken the import intensity of China from the United States. Means that the US economy is negatively affected by the decline of his opponent.
Investment expert Boris William said the United States would accept a relative devaluation of the yuan as a means of providing some support for the Chinese economy. But if Beijing’s financial authorities ignore US warnings that the yuan should not retreat from a certain level, the sensitive level is 6.7 yuan against the dollar The US strategy will change.
"The fear that the continued devaluation of the Chinese currency against the dollar will lead to a currency war is because each country will have a different reading of the reasons for this decline. While China will view it as a justifiable move, Given the conditions in the Chinese economy.
He explains that the other side, the administration of President Trump, will look at China’s position as a plan aimed at harming the US share of world trade. If the two sides engage in a currency war, the other economies will certainly suffer greatly.
He notes that a number of advanced industrial countries such as Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have used the logic of weakening their currency more money printing to encourage exports, so why deprive China of the practice? https://www.albawaba.com/ar/%D8%A3%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84/%D9%87%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85-%D9%86%D8%AD%D9%88-%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%B9%D9%85%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A3%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%A3%D8%AA-1157616