By Mustafa Saadoun for Al Monitor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News

Many Iraqi legislators call for canceling election results

On May 21, a group of Iraqi parliament members submitted a request to the speaker to cancel the results of the May 12 parliamentary elections. The group also called for dissolving the Independent High Electoral Commission, discontinuing electronic voting and reinstating manual voting and sorting, with many legislators saying the elections were sabotaged.

The next day, six Kurdish parties of the Iraqi Kurdistan region threatened to boycott the political process if their demand to cancel the results in Iraqi Kurdistan and other contested areas is not met. However, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the two main political parties that came in first and second in the provinces of the region, did not join in on the complaints.

On May 18, the Independent High Electoral Commission announced the results of the elections. It also said that ballots cast in 103 polling stations in five provinces — Baghdad, Anbar, Salahuddin, Ninevah and Kirkuk — had been annulled because of sabotage and suspicions of fraud. However, the commission did not say whether the cancellation of those ballots actually changed the results.

Out of 329 members of the Iraqi parliament, 176 agreed on canceling the results of the elections, legislator Tawfiq al-Kaabi said. This would mean that the number of parliament members calling for the elections to be voided has reached the majority required for a law to be passed.

Legal analyst Ali Jaber told Al-Monitor, “The Iraqi parliament has the right to dissolve the current electoral commission and cancel the results of the election if it is proven to be sabotaged and fraudulent.”

Said al-Kakai, a member of the Independent High Electoral Commission, agreed with those calling for the cancellation of the results and the reinstatement of manual sorting. During a televised interview aired May 18, he said results that had been double checked in six provinces did not match with the original tallies, with the worst cases having differences ranging from 12% to 63%.

Former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, the leader of the predominantly Sunni National Coalition, is also skeptical of the results, although his grouping won 21 seats. He is suspicious about the vote in refugee camps and abroad and called for the cancellation of those results. He also said he supports manual vote sorting in the contested provinces.

Parliament Speaker Salim al-Jubouri, who lost on May 12 despite being a top National Coalition candidate, said in a recorded message two days after the elections, “There is a conspiracy targeting me specifically. It appears to be part of a more elaborate plan. Yet most of its threads and tools have been revealed, and I will be disclosing all information to the public.”

Shiite parties were also skeptical of the results. Mohammad al-Sahyoud, a candidate from the State of Law Coalition, called “for canceling the results of the elections, extending [the term of] the parliament and announcing a caretaker government due to electoral fraud and sabotage” in a May 17 press statement.

Political analyst Ahmad al-Abiad told Al-Monitor, “The US supports the necessity of having manual sorting for 5% of ballot boxes. This might happen in the coming days.”

He added, “The suspicions around the results of the election are great and the calls for canceling them are even greater, but we do not have any constitutional procedure for canceling the results of elections. So the only solution available for political blocs is to pass a law in parliament canceling the elections before the constitutional end of their term June 30. The government can also appeal the parliament’s decision to the Federal Supreme Court of Iraq.”

The State of Law coalition, which won 25 seats in parliament, was a big loser in the elections, seeing its total drop 66 seats from the 2014 elections. The lower number could jeopardize the coalition’s involvement in the next government.

Skepticism about the results emanated from political parties and groupings that received fewer seats than expected.

Some individuals from other coalitions also called for canceling the results. Member of parliament Mohammed al-Lakash of the National Wisdom Movement (Hikma), which won 19 seats in the new parliament, called for canceling the results because of “fraud attempts, voter intimidation and bribery.”

The Iraqi Turkmen Front in Kirkuk, led by member of parliament Arshad al-Salihi, objected to the election results in the province and asked its supporters to protest in the streets of Kirkuk. It also sued the Independent High Electoral Commission.

This is the first time since 2005 that election results have faced such strong objections. The complaints seem to be coming from all political parties except for the Sairoon Alliance.

The alliance led by the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr won 54 seats in the next parliament. It is the only coalition that did not doubt the results of the elections despite Sadr’s constant objections to the current electoral law.

While it is possible that a law canceling the results could be passed, such a step seems unattainable given the short deadline left for the parliament. The parliament members would first have to hold talks in order to reach a political agreement on the topic. This might lead the country into chaos, so an alternative quick solution that might please all political parties might be to manually sort the ballot boxes of some polling stations.

Today .. A second parliamentary session to discuss the elections .. And expectations that the {no quorum}
5/24/2018


BAGHDAD / Shaima Rachid
The House of Representatives will hold a second extraordinary session on Thursday to discuss the elections and the repercussions that accompanied it. While information was reported that the session witnessed "the vote on the abolition of the elections," parliamentary sources predicted that the quorum is not complete.
Despite the objections and doubts about the results of the elections, the move to "cancel the elections" is unlikely, for several reasons, especially the difficulty of achieving a quorum, according to members of the House of Representatives, at a time when others see the Parliament has legal powers to cancel the elections.
The results of the legislative elections have generated wide controversy, prompting the Speaker of the House of Representatives Salim al-Jubouri to hold an emergency session last Saturday, but the meeting was not achieved because of the lack of completion of the quorum, making Jabouri head to the Office of the official includes the means to provide confidence in the electoral process. Emergency session

"The parliament has the legal and constitutional right to correct the democratic process and prevent it from forgery," MP Iskandar and Tut said in a press statement.
For his part, revealed a member of the House of Representatives Tawfiq al-Kaabi on the establishment of a rally on behalf of "Hama democracy" to demand the cancellation of the elections through a second extraordinary session and the preparation of a new draft law for the elections, during the remainder of the life of the current parliament. "
Al-Kaabi said in an interview with" The presence of positive reasons for the cancellation of the elections, including "cases of fraud declared by some members of the Commission," at a time when he stressed that "the parliament has the powers to issue a decision to cancel." The government may appeal the decision to cancel the elections

On the other hand, the Secretary-General of the Islamic Union of Iraqi Turkmen MP Jassim Mohammed Jaafar al-Bayati, in a press statement that "legally the right of the House of Representatives to issue a law or a decision to cancel the election, but the vote on the law and proceed in practice is very unlikely and difficult to The reasons for the first, that the completion of the quorum of meetings is not easy to achieve, as we saw in the previous emergency session and the previous meetings of the Parliament, especially that there are 50 former deputies have renewed their membership, meaning not to attend the session.
He added that "the other matter is related to the government, which will challenge the proposal of the law and win the appeal because the cancellation of the elections and need to return funds and this includes a financial burden is the jurisdiction of the government in accordance with the decision of the Federal Court."
Al-Bayati added that "the whole issue can not be achieved effectively because it is not logical to go" losers "to issue a decision to cancel the elections for any reason or justification," pointing out that "this means leaving a legal vacuum and the formation of an emergency government and Iraq at a stage where it can not be adventure Options not calculated results ". The violations occur in most countries of the world For his part, MP for the coalition of state law Mansour al-Baiji, in a statement received "morning", a copy of it, "Although there are some electoral violations that occurred during the voting process, but it is not possible to request the cancellation of election results From some political forces. "

"All the political forces that win the elections hold talks and meetings in order to bring them closer together to announce political alliances. This movement has been going on continuously since the results were announced," he said. Elections, "adding that" can not talk about the process of canceling the results simply because of the loss of some candidates or political forces. "
In turn, the legal expert Tariq Harb, in a statement to "morning", the abolition of the elections is impossible for the difficulty of holding a meeting of the House of Representatives Nzab Kamel, calling for "the need to hand over political blocs to the decision of the judiciary after the Council of Commissioners." He said: "Most of those affected by the elections submitted complaints to the Board of Commissioners, which will in turn audit and make appropriate decisions in this aspect," noting that "it is also possible to appeal before the Electoral Administrative Authority in the Federal Court of Cassation." He pointed out that "the issue of fraud needs to be investigated by judges, because it is a crime, and if proven, the elections freeze in a number of stations that have been proven fraud," useful that "these cases can not cancel the election results."

Five" alliances "Shiite" and three blocks "Sunni" and "Kurdish" to form the largest bloc in Iraq
5/20/2018

According to the scenarios put forward, it appears that in Muqtada al-Sadr, "Sadr" and Haidar al-Abadi "victory" and Ammar al-Hakim, "national wisdom" are the closest to ensure the formation of the largest bloc through the alliance with Sunni parties such as Osama Nujaifi "coalition decision" in addition to Iyad Allawi

" The coalition of the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani, the other bloc, which weaves its strings with a clear Iranian consultation is the "conquest" led by Hadi al-Amiri and "State of Law" led by Nuri al-Maliki and the Sunni party, "Baghdad Alliance" led by Jamal Karbouli Kurdish parties are on the Defeated the National Union of change, this is what referred to the Middle East newspaper in a report published today.

The newspaper said that "began to fly here and there test balloons by the winning blocs, especially the large and medium on the formation of the largest bloc that will cost the formation of the next government," noting that "these balloons began to fly ahead of the announcement of the results yesterday morning by the Electoral Commission for elections officially, Although it was probably known to all by more than 90 per cent.

No one expected that 10 per cent if there was a change in seats and rules could change the political equations that States, parties and parties began weaving on unsuspecting fires, High shed light And the challenges in the region , " noting that" about three days before the announcement of the results turned Hananah in the city of Najaf as a kiss for politicians and ambassadors together. "

The young cleric Moqtada al-Sadr won the surprise and upset the balance of the largest votes, "54 seats" of the total seats in the parliament, "329 seats," noting that " Prime Minister Haider Abadi was the first well-wishers and leader of the wisdom movement Ammar al-Hakim, ,

While the congratulations came to Sadr even from the Kurdish leader angry at him from Baghdad after the referendum, Massoud Barzani, the ambassadors of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Syria and Jordan visited the Sadr in his home, blessed and wondering what in the quiver of this man who in the way of his alliances can be the next form of the next government But the shape of the nakedness S whole.

He said that "the announcement of the results did not close the curtain on what has been achieved, has called for 90 deputies to convene an emergency session of parliament to discuss what they called the fate of the electoral process following complaints and appeals and problems in the counting and sorting,

but the Commission’s announcement of the results at dawn yesterday cut the majority of doubts opened the door only The Parliament has not been able to hold the emergency session, which was surrounded by its president Salim al-Jubouri, who lost the electoral round after his alliance with former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi,

to a deliberative session has no effect can result, Ao " The elections are a way for the people to achieve stability, and the integrity of this means must be preserved and removed from all suspicions.

Iraq and its people are more important than the victory of people and political blocs," said Jabouri in a spirit that appeared to be mathematical to his loss that seemed surprising to many .

The newspaper said, "Although this map is still a breakthrough, so if the news of the possibility of withdrawal of the Virtue Party," 7 seats "of the coalition of victory, led by Abbadi, the equation may become more difficult only if the disintegration of one of the blocks or the opposite bargains in the form Temptations on positions and positions, which means that there is not yet a clear hope that a political majority government will be formed in exchange for an opposition minority . "

http://www.skypressiq.net/2018/5/20/%D8%AE%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AB-%D9%83%D8%AA%D9%84-%D8%B3%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%8A-%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B4%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%83%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82

UNHCR announces final election results

5/19/2018

Referral of the file {examination of devices} of integrity .. And a parliamentary session today to discuss the {violations}
Baghdad / morning
While the Independent Electoral Commission revealed the final results and the number of seats obtained by the entities and parties competing, during a press conference held at dawn on Saturday, revealed the media office of the Prime Minister, the transfer of a file involving a violation of the Commission to integrity,

A specialized company, a move that came at the same time during which the House intends to hold an emergency session today, to discuss "violations that accompanied the electoral process ."

The announcement of the final results of the elections, preceded by an invitation by the Commission, urging "all lists and candidates to adhere to the law and the Constitution and follow the legal procedures for objections," rejecting at the same time "all forms of pressure exerted by some affected by the election results.

" The head of the electoral administration in the Office Riad al – Badran, at the beginning of the conference , which was held at dawn on Saturday, that " the Commission received 1416 complaints about breaches accompanied the electoral process, including 1250 in the public vote, and 139 in the voting, and 27 complaints in the voting
abroad.

He said al – Badran , The number of complaints classified as "red" was 33 complaints, while the green number of 423, while the number of complaints yellow 960, pointing out that the number of stations that have been canceled results
of 103 stations.

http://www.alsabaah.iq/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=157310

By Ahmed Mousa Jiyad.

Any opinions expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The Fifth Energy Bidding Round: Poor Management, Dubious Contracts and Bad Results – Attracted Unprecedented Opposition

Prominent Iraqi oil experts and professionals drafted and endorsed a unified position’ statement (UPS) addressed to the three Presidencies; of the Republic, of the Cabinet and of the Parliament.

The UPS provides thorough assessment of both the outcome of this bid round and related dubious two model contracts; it opposes and rejects the results and calls upon the Presidencies not to ratify any contracts relating to this bid round. The UPS, written in Arabic, was disseminated widely inside Iraq and was posted on 9 May onwards on many websites.

Most of the 31 Iraqi oil experts who issued, and their names appears in, the UPS have many decades of leading positions and extensive work experience in the petroleum sector.

For nearly ten years, this is the first time that so many well-known and respected petroleum technocrats come together to issue a unified, strong and specific statement. This in fact is a manifestation of their concern on the gravity of the danger that could undermine the national interest by these contracts and those behind them.

UPS came as a culmination of individual and collective efforts and contributions that were provoked by the fact that these contracts offer unprecedented concessions to the IOCs in post 2003 Iraq, especially when the model contracts were posted and analyzed.

In addition to been the Coordinator for UPS, I wrote a series of contributions (in Arabic) and shared them with my very extensive network of contacts as well as posting them on many websites for wider readership.

There was considerable attention to this bid round since it was first perceived by the Ministry of Oil-MoO in July last year (

http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2017/07/21/important-oil-projects-dubious-non-transparent-contracts/ ) but the recent debate had actually impacted directly by the sequence of events pertaining to the bid round.

Much of the concerns prior to holding the bidding focused primarily on the “secrecy of the contracts”.  MoO announced on 13 April it has prepared two model contracts: The first is for the already discovered and, some, producing oilfields- Development and Production Contract (DPC); and the second is for the exploration blocks- Exploration, Development and Production Contract (EDPC).

The Ministry said it sent the two model contracts together with the Final Tender Protocol-FTP and Bidding Information to the IOCs that bought data package.

But the Ministry broke with its transparent practices, followed by the previous bid rounds, of announcing and posting the model contracts, the FTP and bidding information well ahead of the bid round. This time, it did not. And when I asked why, their answer was it is a matter of “confidentiality”.

That prompted me to not only refuting the confidentiality alibi based on comparative assessment with past practices, but also put that within the environment of secrecy and non-transparency that dominates the ministry since the last ministerial shakeup of August 2016 (see my article in Arabic سرية عقود وزارة النفط ومخالفتها للتوجيهات؛ لماذا ولمصلحة من؟

http://www.akhbaar.org/home/2018/4/243077.html posted on 17 April 2018)

As usual, I posted the above article to my network, including one particular list comprising the three presidencies, senior officers at the Council of Ministers, former oil ministers and most seniors at the ministry of oil. This list witnessed an exchange of lengthy emails between the DG of PCLD at the MoO, Abdul Mahdy Al-Ameedi, and I.

The bidding round finally took place on 26 April. The formal announcement by the MoO was extremely brief and just mentioned a few names of IOCs. One contact posted to me the actual bids on each “area”, by whom, who were the winners, what was the bidding parameter that was announced by the Ministry prior to each bid and other information.

Based on the communicated information it became apparent how dreadful the results were for Iraq. I, again wrote a new article analyzing the process, the legal questions regarding IOCs qualifications, the lack of competition, the outcome of the bidding, among others.

Similar to previous article I disseminated a new article highlighting how disadvantageous the outcomes are for Iraq and, thus, called for immediate and complete rejection of the bid round (جولة التراخيص الاخيرة: نتائجها سيئة جدا ويجب الغائها فورا http://www.akhbaar.org/home/2018/4/243448.html posted on 27 April 2018).

The Ministry was compelled to post the two model contracts two days after convening the bid round; and there was a further shock!

After reading the DPC model I wrote and communicated a third article specifying the main flaws of the contract, its poor text, shaky premises, wrong price equation and how it favors IOCs against Iraqi interests; it was posted on 4 May and also in Arabic (عاجل للغاية- عقود جولة التراخيص الاخيرة اسوء من نتائجها http://www.akhbaar.org/home/2018/5/243755.html posted on 4 May 2018)

In this last article I reiterated the call to cancel the bid round not only for its disadvantageous results but also due to extremely bad contract models. Moreover, I called the Cabinet to refute the contract for East Baghdad oilfield recently concluded with a Chinese company because this contract has similar structure to those used for this bid round.

The last two articles led to another, but more heated, exchange of emails between Al-Ameedi and I within the same list of high government officials. In this debate I requested a launching of formal investigation to be done collectively by the Independent Integrity Commission, the Parliamentary Integrity Committee, the Inspector General at the Ministry of Oil and the Federal Supreme Board of Audit. The debate was interrupted by the national election and hopefully would be resumed regardless of the election results!!!

Below is the full Arabic text of the unified position by the 31 Iraqi oil experts above mentioned and was posted on http://www.akhbaar.org/home/2018/5/243940.html

 

خبراء النفط في العراق يعارضون ويرفضون نتائج وعقود جولة التراخيص الاخيرة

السيد رئيس الجمهورية المحترم

السادة رئيس وأعضاء مجلس الوزراء المحترمون

السيدات والسادة رئيس وأعضاء البرلمان العراقي المحترمون

السيدات والسادة المستخدمون لوسائل الاعلام والتواصل الاجتماعي المحترمون

 

نحن خبراء النفط العراقيين المذكورة اسماءنا ادناه، وبعد الاطلاع على نتائج جولة التراخيص النفطية الاخيرة (الخامسة) وتحليل العقود الخاصة بها، وحرصا منا على المصلحة الوطنية وللتاريخ نعلن بكل وضوح وقناعة:

معارضتنا التامة ورفضنا المطلق لكل من نتائج وعقود هذه الجولة؛ ونناشد كل من مجلس الوزراء والبرلمان على عدم المصادقة على أي من عقود هذه الجولة وعلى العقد الخاص بحقل شرق بغداد.

 

بعد التقييم المهني والموضوعي للعقود المذكورة والتصريحات المنشورة لمسؤولي وزارة النفط كانت نتيجة التقييم سلبية للغاية لان تلك العقود تمنح امتيازات مالية سخية للشركات النفطية الاجنبية بالضد من مصلحة العراق مما يكلف العراق مليارات من الدولارات كتنازل من عوائده الصافية للشركات.

تتلخص هذه الامتيازات السخية المتنازل عنها للشركات الاجنبية بما يلي:

‌أ-    اعتماد اسعار نفط منخفضة في معادلة سعرية مبسطة جدا وبدائية وغير رصينة تستخدم لاحتساب حصة الشركات من العوائد الصافية لعقود تتراوح مددها بين 20 عام و34 عام؛

‌ب-  اعتماد اسعار مرتفعة للغاز الجاف؛

‌ج-    الغاء آلية ربط ربحية الشركات مع نفقاتها الرسمالية المسترجعة (المعروفة بمعامل آر)؛

‌د-     اعتماد آلية لربط استرداد الكلف الرأسمالية بأسعار النفط لا توفر مطلقا أية حماية او منفعة للعراق؛

‌ه-   عدم تحديد العديد من المتغيرات المهمة لكل حقل وتركها للشركات (مثل انتاج الذروة ومدته؛ الانتاج التجاري؛ تخصيصات صندوق التدريب؛ تخصيصات صندوق البنى التحتية)؛

‌و-     معاملة الحقول المكتشفة على انها رقع استكشافية مما يسبب تجاهلا  لحقيقة إنعدام وجود المخاطر التي تتصف بها عادة الرقع الاستكشافية وليس الحقول المكتشفة.

يتلخص هذا التقييم ونتائجه بما يلي:

اولا: يوجد في العقد عدد “هائل” من الاخطاء المطبعية ربما نتيجة للاستعجال في عقد الجولة قبل الانتخابات. كما وتمت الاشارة الى بعض المفاهيم والمصطلحات المهمة والمعرفة ولكن دون استخدامها مثل “معدل المردود الداخلي” و “اعلان الاكتشاف التجاري”.

ولابد من التأكيد هنا ان من اهم اساسيات العقود، وخاصة ان كانت باللغة الإنكليزية، هو دقة النص ووضوح التعبير وسلامة الصياغة؛ وهذه جميعا تتأثر سلبا وبشكل كبير في حالة وجود وتكرار عدد كبير من الاخطاء وعدم تعريف ما يذكر من مفاهيم، مما يؤدي في النتيجة الى ان يكون العقد سيء من حيث التطبيق وخطر من ناحية النتائج ومكلف للغاية في حالة التحكيم الدولي.

ثانيا: عدم وجود الشريك الحكومي

لم يتضمن هذا العقد الشريك الحكومي مما يعني خسارة في حصة العراق تتراوح بين 5 % (بسبب تخفيض حصة الشريك الحكومي في بعض عقود الجولات السابقة) الى 25 % من “العوائد الصافية”. وهذه تشكل خسائر مالية ضخمة جدا للعراق وعائداً اضافياً للشركات. وهنا لابد من التأكيد ان خسارة حصة الشريك الحكومي لا تعوضها حصة الريع Royalty البالغة 25% لان الموضوعين منفصلين تماما.

ثالثا: انعدام التخصيصات السنوية لصندوق التدريب والتأهيل وصندوق البنى التحتية

تمت الاشارة الى كل من الصندوقين في هذا العقد ولكن بدون تحديد التخصيصات السنوية لكل منهما، بخلاف ما كان معمول به في الجولات السابقة.

 

رابعا: عدم تحديد مستوى انتاج الذروة ومدته   Plateau Production & Period

على خلاف كل العقود لجولات التراخيص السابقة لم يحدد عقد هذه الجولة مستوى انتاج الذروة ومدة استمراريته، بل ترك ذلك لحين تقديم الشركة لخطة التطوير النهائية التي تقدم بعد ثلاث سنوات من دخول العقد حيز التنفيذ.

خامسا: مستوى الانتاج التجاري Commercial Production Rate

يحدد هذا المستوى بداية احتساب مستحقات الشركة من العوائد الصافية وحسب الضوابط المفصلة في العقد. ولكن الغريب انه تم تحديد هذا المستوى وبشكل موحد لكل الحقول المشمولة وبكمية 10 ألف برميل يوميا لكل عقد. ومن الجدير بالذكر ان خمسة من “العقود” من مجموع ستة تمت احالتها، تحتوي على تسعة حقول مكتشفة وقسم منها تم فيها حفر خمسة ابار وبنتائج مشجعة جدا.

 

سادسا: تسعيرة الغاز الجاف

حدد العقد سعر الغاز الجاف بما يعدل 50 % من سعر نفط التصدير التمهيدي (للبرميل المكافئ).

ونرى ان الوزارة هنا ارتكبت أكثر من خطا ستترتب عليها نتائج مالية كبيرة لصالح الشركات الاجنبية ونتائج كارثية على العراق للأسباب التالية:

1-    ان هذه العلاقة بين سعر النفط وسعر الغاز الجاف سبق وان تم استخدامها في عقود جولة التراخيص الرابعة فقط؛ لان تلك الجولة كانت للرقع الاستكشافية فقط ولم يتم استخدامها مطلقا لعقود الحقول المكتشفة كما هي عليه الحال في العقود الحالية. وقد سبق لبعض من الموقعين على هذه الوثيقة ان حذروا ونبهوا الوزارة الى ذلك وعدم إطلاق تسمية “رقع استكشافية” على حقول مكتشفة لسبب جوهري يتعلق باعتبارات مخاطر عدم الاكتشاف وضرورة تغطية هكذا مخاطر.

2-    كانت “اجور/مكافئة الخدمة او ربحية الشركة” في جميع عقود الجولة الرابعة (كغيرها من عقود الجولات الثلاث السابقة لها) محددة بعدد ثابت من الدولارات لبرميل النفط (المكافئ)؛ اما في هذه الجولة الخامسة فان ربحية الشركة تكون على اساس “صافي العوائد” كما سيناقش لاحقا. والفرق كبير جدا ولصالح الشركة الاجنبية وخاصة عند ارتفاع اسعار النفط.

3-    تضمنت جميع عقود الجولة الرابعة (كغيرها من عقود الجولات الثلاث السابقة لها) ما يسمى بمعمل-آر    R-factor والذي تنخفض بموجبه ربحية الشركة بتزايد عوائدها على نفقاتها. وتطبيق هذا المعامل من الناحية الفعلية يعني تزايد حصة العراق بعد بلوغ الانتاج مستوى الذروة المتعاقد عليها في الحقل المعني. ولم نجد اي اشارة الى معامل-آر في عقود هذه الجولة مما يعني خسائر مالية كبيرة للغاية يتحملها العراق وتذهب لصالح الشركات الاجنبية.

سابعا: معادلة تحديد “العائد الصافي” وحصة الشركة الاجنبية منه

وهذه تعتبر من أكبر اخطاء الوزارة واكثرها خدمة للشركات الاجنبية واضرارا بمصلحة العراق. وبسبب خطورة هذه المعادلة وافتقارها لأبسط الاسس المهنية والاقتصادية والاحصائية، سنقوم ببيان اخطاء الوزارة وكما يلي:

معدل اسعار النفط العراقي

اعتمدت الوزارة سعر 50 دولار للبرميل “كأساس لسعر النفط” وذلك باعتماد “معدل برنت خلال السنة الماضية وكان بحدود 57 الى 58 دولار مطروح منه 7 دولار”.

اننا نرى ان هذا الرقم وهذه الطريقة تمثل اخطاء فادحة لا تغتفر:

1-    ان مدة هذه العقود تتراوح بين 20 و25 عام بالنسبة لعقود التطوير والانتاج و34 عام بالنسبة لعقود الاستكشاف والتطوير والانتاج. فهل من المنطقي اعتماد معدل سعر النفط لسنة واحدة فقط اساسا لهذه العقود طويلة الامد؟ بالتأكيد ليس منطقيا ولم نقرأ او نسمع مطلقا مثل هذه الطريقة لعقود نفطية تبلغ عوائدها عشرات ان لم يكن مئات المليارات!!!!

2-    تشير المعلومات الرسمية للوزارة ذاتها ان معدل سعر تصدير النفط العراقي منذ تموز 2008 ولغاية نيسان 2018 (اي خلال 118 شهر) كان 74 دولار للبرميل؛ اي 48 % اعلى من السعر المعتمد من قبل الوزارة!!! فلماذا اهملت هذه الاحصائيات الرسمية ولم يسترشد بها؟؟

3-    خلال الفترة اعلاه كان سعر النفط العراقي اقل من 50 دولار في 34 شهرا فقط من مجموع 118 شهر؛ 6 أشهر من تشرين ثاني 2008 والى نيسان 2009، 3 أشهر من كانون ثاني الى اذار 2015 و25 شهرا من آب 2015 الى آب 2017. وهذا يعني ان 28.8% فقط من مجموع الاشهر منذ تموز 2008 كانت اسعار النفط فيها اقل من 50 دولار. فلماذا لم تنتبه الوزارة الى هذه المسالة ولم تستفد منها!!؟؟؟

4-    من اوليات علم الاحصاء والتحليل الاقتصادي وممارسات التقييس   Indexation ان يتم اختيار سعر او سنة “الاساس” بعناية فائقة جدا وبعد اجراء اختبارات عديدة ولابد من تجنب الفترات الغير اعتيادية. وكان عام 2017 غير اعتيادي بدليل اتفاق الاوبك الذي وضع حدا لانهيار اسعار النفط التي بدأت بالتحسن منذ منتصف العام. فلماذا تم تجاهل هذه الأساسيات العلمية المعروفة!!؟؟

5-    يبدو ان الوزارة لم تقم باستشارة سومو وهي الجهة الوحيدة المؤهلة، فنيا، لإعطاء راي بشأن اسعار النفط ضمن تشكيلات الوزارة؟؟ فلماذا تفردت دائرة العقود بتبني سعر للنفط وبهذه الطريقة البدائية للغاية!!؟؟

6-    معظم التوقعات الخاصة بأسعار النفط التي قامت وتقوم بها المؤسسات الدولية المرموقة تشير الى ارتفاع اسعار النفط من الان فصاعدا وبالتأكيد فوق مستوى 50 دولار للبرميل سواء في المديات القصيرة او المتوسطة او البعيدة. فمعدل سعر النفط العراقي خلال الاربعة أشهر الاخيرة من هذا العام كان 61.85 دولار- اي 23.7 % فوق سعر الأساس المستخدم في عقد جولة التراخيص!!

يستنتج مما تقدم ان تبني سعر 50 دولار كأساس في احتساب حصة الشركة الاجنبية من “العائد الصافي” يعمل بالتأكيد على زيادة تلك الحصة طرديا بارتفاع اسعار النفط فوق سعر الاساس المنخفض اصلا. والحسابات اعلاه تشير ان الشركات حققت زيادة قدرها 23.7 % في حصصها من “العائد الصافي” حتى قبل توقيع العقد.

ربط استرداد الكلف الرأسمالية بأسعار النفط

يشير العقد الى ان “نسبة العائد الصافي” المخصصة لاسترداد الكلفة تكون 30 % عندما تكون اسعار النفط تساوي او اقل من 21.5 دولار وبعكسه تكون النسبة 70%.

وهنا نسجل الملاحظات التالية:

1-    لم تذكر الوزارة كيف تم تحديد هذا السعر؟ ومن قبل من؟ وماهي الحسابات والمبررات التي استند عليها؟

2-    لم تشهد اسعار تصدير نفط العراق مطلقا هذا السعر المنخفض منذ تموز 2008 ولحد الان. وان أوطأ سعر كان 22.21 دولار ولشهر واحد فقط وهو كانون ثاني 2016. فما هي الحكمة والفائدة من تحديد هذا السعر المنخفض ليكون اساساً لتجنب أثر تسديد الكلف الرأسمالية!!!

3-    ونظرا لضعف احتمالية انخفاض اسعار النفط العراقي الى ذلك المستوى ولمدة مؤثرة فان ذكر هذا الشرط في العقد لا يشكل اي فائدة للعراق ولا يوفر من الناحية العملية والفعلية اي حماية؛ وبالمقابل اعطى العقد نسبة 70% للشركة لاسترداد الكلفة.!!

4-    والاخطر من كل ذلك ان العقد لم يحدد بوضوح ماذا يحصل لنسبة العائد الصافي عند استرداد الكلف الرأسمالية بالكامل خاصة وان العقد لا يتضمن معامل-آر كما ذكر سابقا.

يستخلص مما تقدم ان ربط استرداد الكلفة بأسعار النفط وبالصيغة المعتمدة بالعقد تخدم الشركات الاجنبية وبالضد من مصلحة العراق.

ثامنا: التعارض مع الدستور وقوانين الموازنة وسياسة الدولة المعلنة

من الاسس الدستورية المهمة في ادارة القطاع النفطي هو “تحقيق اعلى منفعة للشعب العراقي” (المادة 112 –ثانيا)؛ كما اكدت قوانين الموازنة (منذ 2015) على ” حفظ مصلحة العراق الاقتصادية ….. وتخفيض النفقات وايجاد الية لاسترداد التكاليف بحيث تتلاءم مع اسعار النفط”.

فاين هي مصلحة العراق وكيف تم تحقيق اعلى منفعة للشعب العراقي في عقود هذه الجولة وعقد شرق بغداد؟ وهل اعتماد اسعار النفط المذكورة في العقد- كما ذكر اعلاه- تحفظ مصلحة العراق الاقتصادية؟؟؟

لقد تمت احالة ثلاث من ست “رقع” الى شركة مدرجة في القائمة السوداء لمخالفتها-ومازالت- سياسة الدولة المعلنة منذ 2010. وإننا نحذر وبكل قوة ان التعامل مع شركة مدرجة في القائمة السوداء سيترتب عليه نتائج قانونية سيئة للغاية وعلى المستوى الدولي على قدر تعلق الامر بسيادة العراق على ثرواته النفطية والغازية وخاصة فيما يتعلق بعقود الاقليم وقضية التحكيم الدولي ضد تركيا امام غرفة التجارة الدولية في باريس.

 

في ضوء ما تقدم فإننا نناشد كل من مجلس الوزراء والبرلمان على عدم المصادقة على أي من العقود الخاصة بهذه الجولة وعلى العقد الخاص بحقل شرق بغداد.

الموقعون

1-طارق شفيق؛ 2-عصام عبدالرحيم الجلبي؛ 3-عبد الجبار الوكاع؛ 4-د. هاشم الخرسان؛ 5-د. طارق الارحيم؛ 6-د. محمد علي زيني؛ 7-فؤاد قاسم الامير؛ 8-د. طلال  عاشور كنعان؛ 9-د. ثامر حميد العكيلي؛ 10-د. موفق اديب  الصمدي؛ 11-منير الجلبي؛ 12-د. اسامه فرحان عبد الكريم ؛ 13-د. محبوب الجلبي؛ 14-عبدالزهرة جودة كاظم المحمداوي؛ 15-سمير كبة؛ 16-عبد يوسف بولص اسمرو؛ 17-ناطق خضر عباس البياتي؛ 18-د. فالح  حسن الخياط؛ 19 -علي حسين عجام؛ 20-نوري العاني؛ 21-ضياء إبراهيم  الحسن؛ 22-سعد الله  الفتحي؛ 23 -فلاح كاظم الخواجة؛  24-محمد مصطفى الجبوري؛ 25-علي عبد الباقي الحيدري؛  26-علي نوري علي الصالح؛ 27- ضياء شمخي البكاء؛ 28 -دـ حسن علي الناجي؛ 29 – د. نبيل توحلة؛ 30- احمد  موسى جياد (منسق هذا الموقف الموحد) .

يرجى تعميمه ونشره على اوسع نطاق ممكن

مع فائق التقدير والاحترام

احمد موسى جياد

(منسق الموقف الموحد لخبراء النفط العراقيين)

استشارية التنمية والابحاث/ العراق

النرويج

8 أيار 2018

Mr Jiyad is an independent development consultant, scholar and Associate with the former Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES), London. He was formerly a senior economist with the Iraq National Oil Company and Iraq’s Ministry of Oil, Chief Expert for the Council of Ministers, Director at the Ministry of Trade, and International Specialist with UN organizations in Uganda, Sudan and Jordan. He is now based in Norway (Email: mou-jiya(at)online.no, Skype ID: Ahmed Mousa Jiyad). Read more of Mr Jiyad’s biography here.

Parliament: the new parliament will hold its meeting early next month
5/16/2018

The parliamentary legal committee, on Wednesday, expected the first session of the House of Representatives early June, noting that the session will be held after the ratification of the Federal Court on the names of new members.

Committee member Zainab Sahlani said in a statement that "the announcement of the election results will be during the next two days after the final identification of the names of deputies and the threshold of elections and quotas."

"The Commission will send the names of the winners to the Federal Court for ratification within 15 days and after the ratification calls for the President of the Republic to hold an open session of the new Council, which will be headed by the President of the oldest year early next month."

"The political consensus is to choose the speaker of parliament and then vote on it to be the next step is to choose a president who will pass two-thirds of the votes and in turn the new president cost the largest list to nominate its candidate to choose a new prime minister."

http://www.knoozmedia.com/338340/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%88%D9%86%D9%8A%D 8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D8%B3/

The arrest of the accused embezzlement of one billion and 600 thousand dinars

5/15/2018

The Office of Investigation Commission Integrity in the province of Najaf, on Monday, an arrest warrant against the accused embezzlement of one billion and 600 thousand dinars from Rafidain Bank, indicating that the number of lawsuits against her amounted to 13 criminal calls.

In a statement received by al-Sabah, a copy of which was issued by al-Sabah, the court ordered the arrest of the defendant in accordance with the provisions of articles (315 and 316/47-48-49) in cooperation with the security authorities, especially the intelligence and counterterrorism department in the governorate.

He pointed out that "the defendant, who was working as an employee in the Rafidain Bank – the branch of Muslim bin Aqeel, attributed to them related to embezzlement and manipulation of bank accounts of citizens in
government banks

http://www.alsabaah.iq/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=157121

8 steps to form the next Iraqi government
5/14/2018

Iraqis on Saturday voted in the first election since a failed election defeat, a
vote that could affect
the Middle East’s balance of power.

The following is how to form a government according to the Iraqi constitution, which sets a deadline of 90 days for the process:* Independent Electoral Commission announces the results of the final elections* President Fouad Masoum invites the new parliament to convene within 15 days of announcing the results.*

The legislators elect a speaker and two deputies by an absolute majority at the first meeting.* Parliament elects a new president by a two-thirds majority of deputies within 30 days of the first meeting.*

The new president assigns the candidate of the largest bloc in parliament to form a government.* The Prime Minister in charge of 30 days to form a government and presented to Parliament for approval.*

Parliament must approve the government program and each minister separately in a separate vote by an absolute majority.

If the prime minister-designate fails to form a coalition government within 30 days or if parliament rejects the government proposed by the prime minister-designate, the president must appoint another candidate to form a government within 15 days.

http://sumer.news/ar/news/27933/8-%D…A8%D9%84%D8%A9

8 steps to form the next Iraqi government
5/14/2018

Iraqis on Saturday voted in the first election since a failed election defeat, a
vote that could affect
the Middle East’s balance of power.

The following is how to form a government according to the Iraqi constitution, which sets a deadline of 90 days for the process:* Independent Electoral Commission announces the results of the final elections* President Fouad Masoum invites the new parliament to convene within 15 days of announcing the results.*

The legislators elect a speaker and two deputies by an absolute majority at the first meeting.* Parliament elects a new president by a two-thirds majority of deputies within 30 days of the first meeting.*

The new president assigns the candidate of the largest bloc in parliament to form a government.* The Prime Minister in charge of 30 days to form a government and presented to Parliament for approval.*

Parliament must approve the government program and each minister separately in a separate vote by an absolute majority.

If the prime minister-designate fails to form a coalition government within 30 days or if parliament rejects the government proposed by the prime minister-designate, the president must appoint another candidate to form a government within 15 days.

http://sumer.news/ar/news/27933/8-%D…A8%D9%84%D8%A9

Shi’ite cleric Sadr leads in Iraq’s parliamentary election

By REUTERS

May 14, 2018 01:59

BAGHDAD – Moqtada al-Sadr was leading in Iraq’s parliamentary election with over half of the votes counted, the electoral commission said on Sunday, pointing to a surprise comeback for the powerful Shi’ite cleric who had been sidelined by Iran-backed rivals.

Shi’ite militia leader Hadi al-Amiri’s bloc, which is backed by Tehran, was in second place, according to the count of over 95 percent of the votes cast in 10 of Iraq’s 18 provinces.

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi appeared to be running third.
Security and commission sources had earlier said he was leading the election, which was held on Saturday and is the first since the defeat of Islamic State militants inside the country.

Turnout was 44.52 percent with 92 percent of votes counted, the Independent High Electoral Commission said – that was significantly lower than in previous elections. Full results are due to be officially announced on Monday.

Sadr and Amiri both came in first in four of the 10 provinces where votes were counted, but the cleric’s bloc won significantly more votes in the capital Baghdad, which has the highest number of seats.

The commission did not announce how many seats each bloc had gained and said it would do so on Monday after announcing the results from the remaining provinces.

Abadi, a rare ally of both the United States and Iran, came in third in six provinces but ran fifth in Baghdad.

The results unexpectedly showed former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who was touted as a serious challenger to Abadi, lagging behind.

The ranking of these blocs can still change with results yet to be announced from eight provinces, including Nineveh, which has the second-largest number of seats after Baghdad.

Abadi was viewed as a frontrunner before the election. His rivals were seen as Maliki and Amiri, both closer than Abadi to Iran, which has wide sway in Iraq as the primary Shi’ite power in the region.

https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/…lection-556317